Forecasting the Basic Conditions of Indonesia's Rice Economy 2019-2045

Arifin, Zainul; Hanani, Nuhfil; Kustiono, Djoko; Syafrial; Asmara, Rosihan

dc.contributor.author	Arifin, Zainul
dc.contributor.author	Hanani, Nuhfil
dc.contributor.author	Kustiono, Djoko
dc.contributor.author	Syafrial
dc.contributor.author	Asmara, Rosihan
dc.date.accessioned	2021-11-13T03:15:24Z
dc.date.available	2021-11-13T03:15:24Z
dc.date.issued	2021-04-30
dc.identifier.issn	2252-6757
dc.identifier.uri	https://agrise.ub.ac.id/index.php/agrise/article/view/460
dc.identifier.uri	http://repository.unisma.ac.id/handle/123456789/2468
dc.description	[ARCHIVES] Copyright Article from : Agricultural Socio-Economics Journal	en_US
dc.description.abstract	By 2045, Indonesia's population is expected to reach 321.4 million, the fifth largest in the world after China, India, Nigeria, and the United States. It is an excellent challenge for Indonesia to provide food in the future as it keeps pace with the rapid population growth. This study aims to analyze forecasting the basic conditions of Indonesia’s rice economy 2019-2045. The research data use time-series data from 1961-2018, including data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Ministry of Agriculture/Pusdatin, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Rice Research (IRR), Department of Commerce, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and ASEAN Food Safety Information System (AFSIS). Data analysis using the simultaneous equations model approach. The results show that in 2019-2045 the projection of rice productivity in 2025 is 64,465 quintals per hectare; in 2035, it is 68,797 quintals per hectare, and in 2045 it is 77,462 quintals per hectare. In 2045, the projected land area is 27.64 million hectares. Although Indonesia is forecast to experience a rice surplus of 37.80 million tonnes in 2045, the projected rice production and domestic rice consumption level indicate the potential for rice imports of 15 million tonnes.	en_US
dc.language.iso	en	en_US
dc.publisher	Universitas Brawijaya	en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Agricultural Socio-Economics Journal;Vol. 21, No. 2, p. 111-120
dc.subject	Rice Economic Model	en_US
dc.subject	Policy	en_US
dc.subject	Forecasting	en_US
dc.subject	Gold Indonesia 2045	en_US
dc.title	Forecasting the Basic Conditions of Indonesia's Rice Economy 2019-2045	en_US
dc.type	Article	en_US